HFC move and … win

There are, probably, no representatives of climatic community still unaware of the fact that the majority of developed countries have already switched over to alternatives to ozone-depleting refrigerants and that HFC is the bright future of the industry. Only scientists go on arguing whether R-22 is to blame for ozone depletion over earth's poles or everything happened just by itself. The practitioners, climatic industry representatives among them, face a bit different issues. And the most important of them is what equipment range should be now offered in connection with the inevitable total change over to ozone-safe refrigerants.

To get the adequate answer to the question it is necessary to visualize the dynamics of the process in different segments of climatic market. With clean picture of it in mind one can have a forecast of the development of the situation and formulate the proper purchase policy.

Household Air Conditioners

The market share of split systems on new ozone friendly refrigerants in 2003 was around 2.5%. It grew more that threefold the following year and reached 6.7%. And the year 2005 became the first year of mass use of household air conditioners on ozone safe refrigerants. According to preliminary data the share of equipment on HFC grew to 22%. It happened, first of all, thanks to DAIKIN, ME and PANASONIC, the three companies introducing R-410A most actively. Meanwhile, the chart vividly shows that split systems on R 407C became “aliens” in climatic market. This happened due to unwillingness of major part of regional companies to work with this equipment. If PAC split systems on R-407C still find a market, the household systems can be sold only when offered for special prices. The only segment of the Russian market of household air conditioners where HFC equipment is an unquestionable winner is portable air conditioners (2004 – 40%, 2005 – 65%). It is no surprise since the main consumer of such equipment is Europe where R-22 is prohibited. That is why even Chinese manufacturers produce portable monoblocks mainly on HFC.

Russia. Share of split systems on different refrigerants in overall sales volumes (2005 – estimates, 2006 – prognosis)

Forecasting the development of the situation one can assume that the share of split systems on HFC will be around 35-38% while R-407C share will be below 1%. If two-three years ago the highest share of the equipment on HFC was in household split systems then nowadays it is in PAC and multi-split markets. By the way, the reason for it is easily explained. It is in practically complete move to HFC of DAIKIN and ME, the main players in these market segments. Moreover PAC-class equipment is installed mainly by professional installer-companies, and for them it makes no difference what refrigerant is used in the system. But it is different in the market of household split systems, where many small-size installer-companies operate and where about 20% of work is done by unprofessional teams employed in high season by trading houses and even by specialized companies. The type of the refrigerant used is of importance for them, if only for the reason that not all the companies have what is needed for installation of an air conditioner on R-410A.

Moreover, smaller companies have not even come round to the necessity of buying such installation equipment.

VRF systems

Russia. Share of VRF systems on different refrigerants in overall sales volumes (2005 – estimates, 2006 – prognosis)

Move to new refrigerants in the market of VRF equipment was quite fast and “pain-free”. The years 2004 and 2005 proved to be the key ones. Dynamics of refrigerant shares in the market were determined by the policy of the three main suppliers: DAIKIN, ME and MHI. Their move to the new refrigerants has shaped the present day market. DAIKIN and ME changed over to R-410A in 2005, while about half of MHI equipment still runs on R-22. A number of companies like LG and SANYO use R-407C actively, while SAMSUNG and FUJITSU GENERAL – R22. To all appearance, the situation in 2006 will not change drastically. Some DROP íèçÿ íèçÿ íèçÿ íèçÿ íèçÿ íèçÿ in R-22 equipment share can be expected not because of Russian distributors preferences, but due to manufacturers technical policy.

Chillers

It seems that this is the only segment of Russian climatic market where HFC have won escaping notice of the majority of market participants. Usually (with the exception of rare cases when a remote condenser is used) chiller installation is not connected with intrusion into cooling circuit and for installer-companies it makes no difference what refrigerant is used in the system. Practically complete exclusion of R-22 is explained by the fact that majority of chillers is brought from European plants, where equipment on ozone-depleting refrigerants is no longer produced.

Russia. Share of chillers on different refrigerants in overall sales volumes (2005 – estimates, 2006 – prognosis)

The share of R-22 is more noticeable in the segment of the most “archaic” – piston chillers. It is only natural because many manufacturers instead of moving piston chillers to R-407C just substitute them for more modern screw or spiral ones. Refrigerant R-407C dominates in piston and spiral compressors and takes about half of market of screw ones. In short term it can strengthen its position at the expense of R-22, but in the segment of mini chillers it begins to feel pressure from R-410A.

Refrigerant R-134a is used by only five manufacturers: CARRIER, TRANE, YORK, McQUAY, and DAIKIN. It is actively used in chillers with screw compressors and is the only one used in equipment with centrifugal compressors.

And finally R-410A was used in 2004 by two companies only – CARRIER and CIAT. But in the coming years R-410A will begin to push out R-407C. The process will be gradual and start from the lower-capacity end. So, the development will be along the similar lines as in the split-system market.