Market Benchmark - 2

The first Part of article "Market Benchmark" was published In the previous issue of the "World of Climate" magazine. There was examined the structure of the market of ventilation equipment. In this part we would examine the market of air conditioning systems.

In the previous part we decided to compare different segments of the market, shares of different brands or specific equipment on the market not by the money-value or number of units sold, but by their cooling and air-processing capacity. Cooling or air-processing capacity does not depend on either exchange rate, customs duties, discounts and bribes, or some concrete installation decision. So this way of comparison could give the most adequate results.

Besides this way of comparison is the only one, which can by used if compare correctly such segments of the market as room air conditioners, VRF and chillers. This way allows to evaluate the growth of the market of conditioning systems and to compare the rate of growth of separate segments. Figure 1 shows the results of this comparison.

What could we see there? If evaluate the market of conditioning systems by power capacity, we can see a growth of 21 – 23 % within the latest two years. The growth of the market of ventilation equipment during the same period was of 39 – 46% (See Part 1 of the article). This difference in the growth indicates that the market of ventilation equipment is compensating the development lagging of the previous years. Now it is in the faze of the active growth, as was the market of split systems in 2001 – 2002.

Another thing we should pay attention is the following: if evaluate the market by power capacity, we can lessen the influence of the weather factor. In hot or cold years the sales of low-power RACs increase or decrease correspondently. It causes the sharp surges or DROP in sales but has a little influence on the volume of the market, if it is evaluated by power capacity.

Some nuances can be seen better if change the diagram (Figure 1) and show the share of each type of equipment (Figure 2).

The cutting down of the share of window-type mono-blocks becomes visible. At the same time the share of VRF – systems and chillers steadily grows, it grew from 16% to 19,3% within two years and continues to grow.

The used approach allows also to demonstrate the ratio between the market segments of VRF and chillers (the VRFs are evaluated by the nominal capacity of their outdoor units). There are a lot of disputes recent years, which of these two segments develops more dynamically. The diagram on Figure 3 dives the most adequate answer to this question.

If take the summary capacity of these systems for 100%, the share of VRFs increased from 15% to 20% within two years and continues growing.

What is this dynamic connected with? The answer is not so evident and needs the detailed analysis of situation in the regions of Russia.

The rate of growth of the market of ventilation equipment is stable at the level of 35 – 45% (see the first part of the article published in the previous issue of the magazine). In the South of the country, for instance, this market grew 6 times as much within latest 4 years! At the same time the number of specialists who can work with the ventilation equipment, increased maximum by 20% for the same period. So the job for those who works in this segment increased 5 times as much. Now there is a great shortage of specialists in the segment.

Actually, the companies in many regions, who work with "classical" central conditioning systems (chiller – central air conditioner – fan coil), are overloaded with orders. They often don't have necessary resources to accept and to work with some new orders. At the same time VRF systems don't require time-consuming design work (because they don't require central air supply system) and mounting of these systems is only slightly more complicated than the mounting of split systems. That is the reason why many companies try to convince customers to install VRF systems. Besides, there is a possibility to buy and commission equipment step-by-step when VRF systems are installed. It is especially important when the financing of the construction works is not stable.

The reasons of advanced growth of the market of VRF systems in Moscow and Sankt-Peterbourg are different. First of all, it is massive reconstruction of buildings and different installations. Also contributes the equipping with the air conditioning systems of some already existing installations, the functioning of which can not be interrupted. Anyway, the diagram on the Figure 3 shows the actual dynamic of the ratio between the markets of VRF systems and chillers.

And one more thing we would like to attract your attention to. That is the ratio between the markets of chillers and roof-tops (Figure 4).

As you can see on the diagram (Figure 4), the share of roof-tops increased from 5,6% to 7,3% in two years, if consider these markets together. It is the result of thriving construction of hypermarkets, where the use of roof-top systems is becoming a standard decision in design.